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Publications
Refereed journal articles
"Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence." International Journal of Central Banking. 2(3): 49-86 (2006). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 05-8 (2005).
“Estimating the Euler Equation for Output,”
with Glenn Rudebusch. Journal of Monetary Economics.
51: 1133-1153 (2004). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 02-3 (2002).
“Risky Habits: Risk Sharing, Habit Formation
and International Consumption Correlations,”
with Michael Klein. Review of International Economics.
Previously issued as NBER Working
Paper Series no. 6735 (1998).
“Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of
Monetary Policy Models,” with A. Estrella. Review
of Economics and Statistics. 85(1) (February
2003): 94-104.
“Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications
of a Class of Rational Expectations Models,”
with Arturo Estrella. American Economic Review.
92(4) (September 2002). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no.
98-5 (1998).
“Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment:
An Overview,” with Mark Sniderman. Journal
of Money, Credit and Banking. 32(4,
part 2) (2000).
“Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications
for Monetary Policy.” American Economic Review.
(June 2000).
“Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded
at Zero,” with B. Madigan. Review of Economics
and Statistics. 79(4): 573-585 (1997). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no.
94-1 (1994).
“The (Un) Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior
in Price Specifications.” Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking. 29(3):
338-350 (August 1997).
“Inflation/Output Variance Trade-offs and Optimal
Monetary Policy.” Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking. 29(2): 214-234 (May 1997).
“Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest
Rates.” Quarterly Journal of Economics.
111(4): 1183-1209 (November 1996).
“Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability
of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule,” with
G. Moore. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 27(4): 1060-1070 (November 1995, Part I).
“Monetary Policy Trade-Offs and the Correlation
Between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output.” American Economic Review. 85:
219-239 (March 1995).
“Inflation Persistence,” with G. Moore. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 110(1): 127-159 (February 1995).
“A Comparison of GMM and Maximum-Likelihood
Estimates of Quadratic Cost Inventory Models,”
with G. Moore, S. Schuh. Journal of Monetary Economics. 35: 127-159 (February 1995).
“Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household
Spending? If So, Why?” with C. Carroll, D. Wilcox. American Economic Review. 84(5): 1397-1408 (December
1994).
“Learning About Monetary Regime Shifts in an
Overlapping Wage Contract Economy,” with M. Hooker. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 17: 531-553 (1993).
“Monetary Policy Rules and the Indicator Properties
of Asset Prices” with G. Moore. Journal of
Monetary Economics. 29: 303-336 (1992).
“Estimating Time-Varying Parameters in a Nonlinear
Multivariate Model: Inferring Changes in Expectation
Behavior Over Time.” Journal of Business and
Economic Statistics. 10: 169-178 (1992).
“A Multivariate Posterior Odds Approach to Assessing
Competing Exchange Rate Models,” with K. Weiller. Review of Economics and Statistics. 73: 113-124
(February 1991).
“Estimation of Time-Varying Weights on Alternative
Expectation Models: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying
Parameters Estimation.” Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control. 12: 55-61 (1988).
“On the Information Content of Consumer Survey
Expectations.” Review of Economics and Statistics. 70: 140-144 (March 1988).
“Minimum Variance Pooling of Forecasts at Different
Levels of Aggregation,” with J. Haltmaier. Journal
of Forecasting. 7: 63-73 (May 1988).
“Information Gathering and Expectation Formation
under Model Uncertainty.” Southern Economic
Journal. (January 1987).
Other journal articles
“Issues
In Economics: What Is the Cost of Deflation?”
with Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. Regional Review 14(1) (Quarter
4, 2003/Quarter 1, 2004).
“Issues
In Economics: In a Booming Economy, Unemployment Has
Remained Surprisingly Strong,” with Hoyt
Bleakley and Ann Ferris. Regional Review 9(2) (Quarter 4,
1999).
“New
Data on Worker Flows During Business Cycles,”
with Hoyt Bleakley and Ann E. Ferris. New England Economic Review (July/August
1999).
“Beyond
Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? An Overview,”
with Scott Schuh. New England Economic Review(November/December 1998).
“Shifts
in the Beveridge Curve, Job Matching, and Labor Market
Dynamics,” with Hoyt Bleakley. New England Economic Review (September/October
1997).
“Central
Bank Independence and Inflation Targeting: Monetary
Policy Guideposts for the Next Century?”
New England Economic Review (January/February 1997).
“Technology
and Growth: An Overview,” with Jane Sneddon
Little. New England Economic Review (November/December 1996).
“Monetary
Policy and the Behavior of Long-Term Real Interest
Rates.” New England Economic Review (September/October 1995).
“The
Phillips Curve Is Alive and Well.” New England Economic Review (March/April
1995).
“The
Persistence of Inflation and the Cost of Disinflation.”
New England Economic Review (January/February 1995).
Books and book chapters
“Estimating Forward-Looking Euler Equations
with GMM and Maximum Likelihood Estimators: An Optimal
Instruments Approach,” with Giovanni Oliviei,
in Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the
Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter
Tinsley. Faust, J., Orphanides, A. and D. Reifschneider,
eds. 2004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no.
04-2 (2004).
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, edited
with Mark Sniderman, special issue editors. Proceedings
from October 1999 conference sponsored by the Federal
Reserve, “Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation
Environment;” 32, no. 4, part 2 (November 2000).
“Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment:
An Overview,” with Mark Sniderman. Proceedings
from October 1999 conference sponsored by the Federal
Reserve. In Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
32, no. 4, part 2 (November 2000).
“Monetary Policy Issues in a Low-Inflation Environment:
Comment,” in Why Price Stability? the
First European Central Bank Central Banking Conference.
November 2000: 169-174.
“What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the
1990s in Canada? A Comment,” in the Proceedings
from Bank of Canada Conference, Price Stability
and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy. June
2000, pp. 88-95.
Beyond Shocks:
What Causes Business Cycles? edited with Scott
Schuh. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston Conference Series no. 42, 1998.
“Beyond
Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? An Overview,”
with Scott Schuh, in Beyond Shocks: What Causes
Business Cycles? Proceedings from the Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 42, 1998,
pp. 1-31.
“Towards a Compact, Empirically Verified Rational
Expectations Model for Monetary Policy Analysis,”
in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public
Policy no. 47, December 1997, pp. 197-230.
Technology and Growth, edited with Jane Sneddon
Little. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank
of Boston Conference Series no. 40, 1996.
“Technology and Growth: An Overview,” with
Jane Sneddon Little, in Technology and Growth,
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no.
40, 1996, pp. 1-32.
Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints for Monetary
Policymakers, editor. Proceedings from the Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 38, 1994.
“Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio,”
in Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary
Policymakers. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve
Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 38, 1994, pp.
43-69.
Working papers and other unpublished papers
“Intrinsic
and Inherited Inflation Persistence.” FRB
Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 05-8 (2005).
“Eyes on
the Prize: How Did the Fed Respond to the Stock Market?”
with Geoff Tootell. FRB Boston Public Policy Discussion Paper Series, paper no. 04-2
(2004).
“Optimal Monetary
Policy in a Model with Habit Formation and Explicit
Tax Distortions.” FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper
no. 01-5 (2001).
“Are ‘Deep’
Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical
Hypothesis,” with Arturo Estrella. FRB Boston
Working Papers Series, paper no. 99-4 (1999).
“An Optimization
Model for Monetary Policy Analysis: Can Habit Formation
Help?” FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 98-1
(1998).
“Towards a
Compact, Empirically Verified Rational Expectations
Model for Monetary Policy Analysis” FRB Boston
Working Papers Series, paper no. 96-8 (1996).
“Computationally
Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation
of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models,”
with C. Hoyt Bleakley. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no.
96-2 (1996).
“Modeling
Long-Term Nominal Interest Rates.” FRB Boston
Working Papers Series, paper no. 95-7 (1995).
“The (Un)Importance
of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications.”
FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 95-6 (1995).
Other material
Discussion of 'Monetary
Policy for Inattentive Economies' by Laurence Ball,
N. Gregory Mankiw, and Ricardo Reis. Conference
on Behavioral Macroeconomics. Swiss National Bank/Journal
of Monetary Economics. October 11-12, 2002.
“An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework
for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Comment,”
NBER Macroeconomics Annual. November 1997.
Matlab code for solution,
simulation, and estimation of general dynamic linear
rational expectations models. (Fuhrer and Moore,
February 1995).
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